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Home > Election Analysis > 2 'Gone' and 3 'Remaining'

2 'Gone' and 3 'Remaining'

4th February 2017 was the first day of the assembly elections in five states which is also referred to as the 'Mini General Elections'. It is often termed as a referendum to the many initiatives taken by the government at the centre.

BJP and is allies are completely banking on the major announcements made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the last one year including Demonetisation to bail them out in these five states. But with the first phase of voting just over in two states of Goa and Punjab the mood of the voter does not seems to bailing them out in this strong people's current.

Goa seems to be going to the AAP or the Congress way and the more than 83% percent of voters turnout surely reflects the anti incumbency wave against the ruling BJP. There was a sharp decline in number of seats being won by BJP in the various pre poll surveys from January to February 2017. While the India Today-Axis survey conducted on January 6th 2017 gave BJP 22-25 seats from the 40 seats which declined to 17-19 in The Week-Hansa Research conducted on January 29th 2017 which further declined to 15 in the HuffPost-Cvoter conducted on February 2, 2017.

Though the last moment's efforts were made by BJP to rush top leaders including Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar to Goa to check this declining people's support but the confusion over the choice of Chief Minister seems to have worked against the BJP. People wanted to have Manohar Parrikar back as CM and though many BJP leaders indicated this may happen but will it really happen-the people support seemed to have been lost in this uncertainty.

Punjab also seems to be going to the AAP or the Congress way. Though 78% percent of voter's turnout here may not be a complete indicator to anti incumbency because in the 2012 elections also high voter's turnout was seen and many predicted it as anti incumbency but the SAD-BJP alliance came back to power defying all pre poll predictions.

But this does not seem to be coming true this time. A strong anti incumbency wave is being felt against the SAD-BJP alliance. People are fed up with the autocratic rule of the present government, the drug menace and lack of jobs for youths. Congress came strongly in this election with announcing CM candidate and bringing back Navjot Singh Sidhu in his fold, the insider who had enough ammunition against the Badals. AAP contention is also very strong and the coming down of many NRI's in support of this party and their strong attack on drug mafia supports their stakes for power.

SAD-BJP alliance was given just 11 seats out of the total of 117, in the pre poll survey of the HuffPost-Cvoter conducted on February 2, 2017.

Whoever wins the people mandate in Goa and Punjab-be it Congress or AAP but it is clear that the BJP has lost the race in the states of Goa and Punjab. Now they have to strive hard in the three states of Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Manipur to come to power, just truly said-2 gone and 3 remaining.


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