3 out of our 4 analysis came true-RElections.in
Now, that all the government of all 5 states were assembly election were held recently are in place it is necessary to introspect what we analyzed on this platform for you and what came true or not. Before we analyze what we analyzed, it must be cleared that these analysis were based on ground reports based on news and views accessed from people based in these states and these were in no way any exit polls.
In our first analysis ‘2 Gone & 3 Remaining’ we analyzed that BJP is going out of Punjab and Goa where the polls were completed in the early phases of this election process and that came out completely true in both states.
It is very true that we analyzed that SAD-BJP combine is going out of power in Punjab but like all other exit polls and predictions in our analysis also the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party were locked in tight race in Punjab.
In Punjab, all exit polls unanimously predicted a drubbing for the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine. But the polls were divided on whether the Congress or the Aam Aadmi Party, which was fighting its debut assembly election in the state, will form the next government.Two exit polls predicted a photo-finish while two other were split between the Congress and the AAP in the 117-member assembly. It came true that SAD-BJP was ousted with a thumping victory by Congress led by Captain Amrinder Singh.
In Goa, we analyzed that the wave is against the ruling BJP party. Most people saw both the established parties, the ruling BJP and the Congress, as jaded. One of the predictor said that Goa may be headed for a change in guard because of a high voter turnout and the high number of women voters in the state. Though the results showed what we analyzed, as Congress won the highest number of seats in the Goa Assembly but as they were short of majority BJP surged ahead and formed the government.
In our next analysis ‘1 won but 2 gone’ we analysed that BJP is coming to power in Uttrakhand and that certainly came out true. In Uttrakhand, the BJP looked set to dislodge the Congress as four out of five exit polls gave a clear majority to the saffron party.
One poll forecast a close fight in the 70-member legislature. One newspapercorrespondent said that Chief Minister Harish Rawat had himself hinted at a Congress defeat. However, another article said that Congress was now confident of a victory because of low voter turnout in Uttrakhand polls.
We agree that our analysis ‘Will SP combine emerge as the largest party in U.P’ failed to comprehend the undercurrent of Modi wave. Our analysis was based on polarization of Muslim votes which ultimately turned out to be division of Muslim votes. We also analyzed a hung assembly like all other exit polls which also turned out to be the other way- a thumping and complete majority for BJP.
In the politically crucial UP, all exit polls forecasted a hung assembly. Two gave the BJP a clear advantage over its nearest rival, the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance while two others predicted a close fight between the two formations.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was seen as a distant third in all four exit polls available for the 403-member house.In terms of BJP coming to power with more than 300 seats all exit polls and analysts failed to predict such a thumping majority for BJP. Exit polls have frequently gone wrong in the past, including in Bihar and Delhi in 2015. Analysts say that states with diverse populations and complex caste, community and religious affiliations tend to throw pollsters off.
Overall 3 out of our 4 predictions came true and with 75% results in our favour we think your favourite site was able to catch the sentiments of the people. Keep your trust with us and we will continue providing you the analysis for forthcoming elections.