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Home > Election Analysis > Andhra Pradesh and Lok Sabha election 2014

Andhra Pradesh and Lok Sabha election 2014

Andhra Pradesh has 42 Lok Sabha constituencies. With the division of the sate into Seemandhra and Telengana, 25 Lok Sabha seats have gone to the former and 17 to the latter. The election will be held in the combined regions on 42 seats that may be later bifurcated.

The total number of electorates in Andhra Pradesh is 62,385,949 of which 31,359,303 are male voters and 31,022,225 are female voters.

The politics in the state has drastically changed since the division of the state. Andhra Pradesh has traditionally been the Congress bastion since independence. Now with the division of the state the politics in the state is a divided lot. The people in Seemandhra region are against the division of the state and are unhappy with the Congress party because it is the one that spearheaded the state's bifurcation. So it is sure that the Congress will have drubbing in the region.

The main political force in the Seemandhra region is the Telgu Desam party that is forming an alliance with the BJP. In its opposition is the Jagmohan Reddy led YSR Congress that has decided to contest alone.

In the Telangana region the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) led by K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) is the main political force. TRS takes the credit for creating Telangana state and has not given any assurance of its alliance with the Congress. Both the parties are contesting the polls alone. Here the Telgu Desam party and YSR Congress are its main opposition.

The CNN IBN 7 opinion poll gives Telugu Desam Party 9-15 seats, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's party 11-19 seats. Congress may get 5-9 seats; Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) may win 4-8 seats while 0-4 seats may be won by others.

CVOTER predicts Congress alliance may win 18 seats while YSR Congress may bag 13 to 15 seats.

India Today group says TRS may win 15 seats while 30 seats may be bagged by YSR Congress Party.

India TV survey gives 13 seats to TRS, 13 to YSR Congress, 7 to Congress, 8 to TDP and 1 to MIM.

In the cast matrix of Andhra Pradesh traditionally, the Reddys have voted for the Congress party and the Khamas for the Telgu Desam party. Now with Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress, it appears that the Reddy's have switched their loyalty from INC to YSR Congress. In Telengana region which way the Reddy votes will go remains to be seen. In Telangana region TRS leader K. Chandrashekar Rao who is a Khamma will get its communities votes is something that remains to be seen. The bifurcation of the state has totally upset the caste vote bank politics in the state. How the different communities will choose their political parties in 2014 Lok Sabha elections remains uncertain.

It is more likely that voting this time will be on the regional lines and not on the caste lines in Andhra Pradesh. It will be a three cornered contest with the Telgu Desam –BJP alliance – the TRS-Congress alliance and the YSR Congress.

In the final tally it is likely that the YSR Congress may emerge as number one with maximum number of seats, followed by the TRS – Congress combine and on the third slot will the TDP- BJP combine.

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