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Home > Election Analysis > Will anti-incumbency be a factor in 5 poll bound states

Will anti-incumbency be a factor in 5 poll bound states?

Will anti-incumbency be a factor work in 5 states which goes to polls in 2017 or there are other factors which play a crucial role in these elections? Will it be the caste factor in Uttar Pradesh or will it be the regional factor in Uttarakhand? Will it be the anti –drug sentiment in Punjab or will it be the peace talks in Manipur? Will it be the coalition factionalism in Goa or will it be the alliance in Uttar Pradesh? These are some of the ‘wills’ which needs to be answered as we sit down to analyze the situations and try making some predictions in the five states which goes to polls in 2017.

Uttar Pradesh is the major state going to polls in 2017 and already there is war of at many fronts within the ruling Samajwadi Party. On one hand the party has already announced the list of more than 300 candidates while on the other the CM Akhilesh Yadav who is known for his developmental activities is not happy with the list and has handed over his list to the party. Inspite of all these Akhilesh Yadav is busy in inaugurations and foundations because he wants to fight elections on plank of development. The UP CM has made more than 1000 decisions aimed at wooing the voters in past few months. He has already implemented the 7th Pay Commission recommendations for 16 lakh state govt employee and six lakh pensioners. He has already launched the trial run of new Metro lines between Noida and Greater Noida, started trial of Lucknow Metro and laid the foundation of Kanpur Metro. Though he is known for development but if the infighting continues the anti incumbency factor will surely creep in.

The nest major state going to polls in 2017 would be Punjab where the major issues which is coming out is corruption and drugs. However Parkash Singh Badal has been more proactive than usual in recent days. He has taken major welfare decisions in the past month. More than 3000 posts have been created-cheaper loans-home, education and personal loan made available. For salary account holders he has announced personal accident insurance up to Rs.15 lakhs, air accident insurance up to Rs.25 lakhs and permanent disability insurance worth Rs.5 lakh. Akali Dal has ruled the state for two consecutive terms and here it seems that though the ruling party along with BJP will try to check out the anti-incumbency but it may play a major role.

In Uttarakhand, Harish Rawat has also taken major decisions in past one month. 90 minute break for Muslim government employee to offer namaz followed by proposal to name Jolly Grant airport as Adi Sahnkarcharya air port. MoU signed with Delhi Metro for rail project between Dehradun and Rishikesh. The margin here has always been thin in the recent times and CM would put all his effort in checking the anti-incumbency votes.

Laxmikant Parsekar has also laid foundation for Green field Mopa airport project in North Goa. There is some cold war among the ruling party leaders over defection of MLA from other parties. Corruption will play a major role in anti-incumbency votes.

Okram Ibobi Singh has been working in mission mode lately in Manipur. He has announced creation of seven new districts and despite opposition by Naga bodies and ongoing blockade of highways by Naga council since Nov1. Here anti-incumbency will depend upon how he solves the Naga issue.

Though each of the 5 states will surely see anti-incumbency votes but development plank of the ruling parties will surely be able to check anti-incumbency at many places.


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