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Home > Election Analysis > Will SP combine emerge leader in U.P ?

Will SP combine emerge leader in U.P ?

Uttar Pradesh elections which was marked by caustic, high decibel campaigning, which saw the political discourse plumbing to low levels at times, the long-drawn polling process in the most populous and politically crucial state will witness the height of climax of 11th March 2017. Though most of the exit polls have predicted win for BJP but going by the ground reality it may not turn true? The voters today are much literate and smart enough to reveal the reality of their secret franchise.

SP combine with Congress has surely helped in the consolidation of votes in the Muslim dominated areas and realizing the fact that this combine can only stand against BJP it seems that Muslim votes have consolidated in favour of the combine.

The ground reports are that Muslim reports have consolidated in favour of anti BJP candidate meaning that where ever candidate of SP-Congress have been strong Muslims have consolidated their votes in their favour and it the candidate was not up to their expectation votes consolidated in favour of BSP. Though BSP Muslim candidates individually also were able to garner support from their community. The BSP's core vote of 21.5 per cent Dalits is not intact.

The rainbow coalition of Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins that had brought Mayawati to power in 2007 has also split up. Many people were seen advocating the development plank of Akhilesh and were in favour of giving him a second chance. Many people voted for good roads and power situation of Uttar Pradesh cutting across party lines. It seems that SP-Congress combine may emerge as the largest party.

The situation would have been better if not for the family feud. Caught in a bitter family feud and power struggle in the ruling Samajwadi Party, Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav took over the party's reins by knocking out his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and uncle Shivpal Yadav and later aligning with Congress. The party contested on 298 seats.

Akhilesh's wife Dimple, who is a lawmaker from Kannauj, actively campaigned while Mulayam Singh chose to campaign only for friend Parasnath Yadav, brother Shivpal Yadav and daughter-in-law Aparna.

Realizing the fact that there is a chance of bringing the OBC voters in its fold and keeping the possibility of division of minority votes ,the BJP put up its might into the elections with Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding two road shows, taking the rounds of various temples and ashrams and addressing 23 rallies - his highest so far for any state assembly elections.

BJP president Amit Shah also addressed 200 big and small rallies with the state functionaries also chipping in with hundreds of rallies, churning the entire state. The Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), the ideological parent of the BJP, was active too and its cadres were pitching in for a BJP victory. In the run up, several thousand km were traversed by state leaders through 'parivartan yatras' which covered the entire state and many 'MBC and OBC conventions'.

The overall voting percentage of 61 per cent across its seven phases for the 403 assembly seats, was slightly higher than the 59.5 per cent registered in the 2012 assembly elections. But after three clear verdicts in the Assembly elections of 2007, 2012, the spectre of a hung house looms large over the state once again with party insiders saying the main reason being the absence of any single issue binding the state.

The hung assembly may again see new permutation and combination arising and if parties are not able to keep their flock together any one of the parties can form a government of its own by making winning inroads on members of other parties if not on the people’s mandate.


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