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Home > Election Analysis > Will the BJP get enough seats?

Will the BJP get enough seats?

Truly, will the BJP get enough seats to form the government with its allies? That's a question ringing in many minds, even as some have taken it for granted that Modi will sail to the Prime minister's seat rather easily. Many are predicting that Modi will and the BJP will cross the 300 mark, even the satta market believes that. However we did deep thinking and did the maths but could not reach even the 272 mark of a simple majority. We feel the going is still tough for the BJP.

There will be much running after needed, once the results are out. Since no one has a doubt that the BJP will be the single largest party in the Lok Sabha and will be definitely asked to try to form the government, we will stick to analyzing their performance alone. We expect the BJP to run to old allies like Ms. Jayalalitha for support. But that too may not add up to the numbers. Our expected results from the 2014 general elections for the 553 Lok Sabha seats point towards the need for the BJP to get new supporters.

Now the big question remains that whether old friends of BJP and the new ones too will want to support Modi. There is still a group that tried to project Advani as the alternative, even as other BJP leaders are nurturing hopes. All will unfold once the election results are out. In fact many Muslim groups have not much problem with the BJP as much as they have with Mr. Modi and parties who wish to safe keep their Muslim votes will not venture to support Modi.

In these few months Modi has proved that he can rise despite opposition. His skills will now be put to test in getting the required allies. And if he does manage this tough task then perhaps he indeed deserves to be Prime minister of India.

Here is a rough breakup of the state wise expected seats of the BJP and its alliances.

Breakup of the Expected Seats

Name of the State Number of Seats(BJP+)
Andhra Pradesh 13
Assam 4
Bihar 22
Chhattisgarh 8
Dadra & Nagar Haveli 1
Daman 1
Delhi 5
Goa 1
Gujarat 20
Haryana 6
Himachal Pradesh 2
Jammu & Kashmir 1
Jharkhand 8
Karnataka 10
Madhya Pradesh 20
Maharashtra 25
Orissa 6
Punjab 5
Rajasthan 20
Tamil Nadu 5
Uttaranchal 3
Uttar Pradesh 35
West Bengal 3
Total 224

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